USD/TRY resumes the upside and advances to new highs around 23.5000
- USD/TRY prints a new record high around 23.5000 on Friday.
- President Erdogan appoints a new President for the central bank.
- National lenders supported the lira on Thursday.
The sell-off in the Turkish currency remains unabated, and USD/TRY advances to a fresh all-time peak just above 23.5000 at the end of the week.
USD/TRY pushes higher despite the new CBRT Chief
USD/TRY quickly left behind Thursday’s pullback and resumed the upside to uncharted territory around the 23.5000 region at the end of the week, just to give away some of those gains afterwards.
The move higher in the pair came despite President R. T. Erdogan’s appointment of Hafize Gaye Erkan as the new Governor of the Turkish central bank (CBRT).
Erkan, a former banking executive in the US, has become the first female chief of the CBRT. Prior to this role, she had worked at Goldman Sachs and First Republic Bank. Markets may interpret her appointment as a signal of Ankara’s intention to normalize its monetary policies, which have experienced years of extremely low interest rates and rampant inflation.
It remains to be seen, however, whether Erkan can impose her monetary will under Erdogan’s leadership. The first round of this match is expected on June 22, when the CBRT will hold its monetary policy meeting.
So far, the Turkish currency has already depreciated over 25% since the start of the new year, while the drop has reached more than 170% since the Turkish central bank (CBRT) embarked on its easing cycle in August 2021.
Further news mentioned that Turkey’s new Treasury and Finance Minister M. Simsek and top banks executives intend to meet for the first time next week.
In the calendar, Industrial Production in Türkiye contracted 0.9% MoM in April and 1.2% from a year earlier.
What to look for around TRY
USD/TRY maintains its upside bias well in place, always underpinned by the relentless meltdown of the Turkish currency.
In the meantime, investors are expected to closely monitor upcoming decisions on monetary policy, particularly after President R. T. Erdogan named former economy chief M. Simsek as the new finance minister following the cabinet reshuffle in the wake of the May 28 second round of general elections.
The appointment of Simsek has been welcomed with optimism by market members in spite of the fact that it is not yet clear whether his orthodox stance on monetary policy can survive within Erdogan’s inclination to battle inflation via lower interest rates.
In a more macro scenario, price action around the Turkish lira is supposed to continue to spin around the performance of energy and commodity prices – which are directly correlated to developments from the war in Ukraine, broad risk appetite trends, and dollar dynamics.
Key events in Türkiye this week: Industrial Production (Friday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Persistent skepticism over the CBRT credibility/independence. Absence of structural reforms. Bouts of geopolitical concerns.
USD/TRY key levels
So far, the pair is gaining 1.19% at 23.3466 and faces the next hurdle at 23.5196 (all-time high June 9) followed by 24.00 (round level). On the downside, a break below 19.8086 (55-day SMA) would expose 19.3827 (100-day SMA) and finally 18.9661 (200-day SMA).