WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis | Forexlive

The OPEC+ seems to be
intentioned to maintain oil prices above the $70 mark, but even with the Saudi
Arabia additional voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) beginning
in July, with the possibility of extension based on market conditions, and the
other members of OPEC+ extending their production cuts throughout 2024, oil
prices keep falling.

While the OPEC+ supply cuts
may generate short-term spikes, it looks more and more evident that we are in a
recessionary cycle, and the demand side is influencing heavily the oil market. The
last surprising production cut back in April was completely faded and prices
tumbled back to the $64 support from a $83 high. Now, the production cut in
June was again faded and prices fell to $67 from the $75 high after the cut.

We are likely to see the
oil market ranging maintaining a bearish bias with some short-term bullish
moves caused by OPEC+ cuts and maybe even from the rate cuts in China. It’s a
tough market to trade at the moment.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Crude Oil
basically ranges in lower and lower levels. First it was around the $90 level,
then around the $80 level and now around the $70 level. The OPEC+ seems to do a
good job in limiting the downside for the oil prices as we may have witnessed
much lower prices if it wasn’t for the production cuts.

The level to watch now is the $75 level as a break
above it may trigger a bigger rally towards the $82 resistance. On the
downside, a break below the $64 support would spell trouble for the oil market
and we could see a quick fall into the $57 level.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
recently bounced from the $67 level and it’s now looking at the $74 resistance
zone. The speculation of more expansionary monetary policy from China may give
the oil prices a boost in the short-term as Chinese policymakers are trying to
bolster demand. If we keep seeing worse employment data in the US though, the
prices should continue to fall.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a support turned
resistance zone at the $70 level where we can also
find the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence. The
buyers are likely to pile in if the price breaks above the level and target the
$74 resistance area. The sellers, on the other hand, should lean on this level looking
for another fall into the $67 low and eventually target a breakout.

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