Economic calendar in Asia 30 June 2023: Japanese inflation data & also China PMIs (June) | Forexlive

The first data of impact is an inflation indicator from Japan, inflation as measured in the Tokyo area. This is regarded as a leading indicator of nationwide inflation but its not a perfect 1 for 1 indication.

The previous indications from this data point, for May, had all three measures remaining above 3%. The index that excludes food and energy, known as core-core and the closest to the US measure of core inflation, rose from April to hit a 40 year high. Underlying price pressures remain worrisome despite the Bank of Japan continuing to insist that their forecasts show inflation is transitory.

Later in the session we’ll get the official PMIs, those from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), for June. Next week we’ll get the privately surveyed PMIs. That is, China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin and research firm Markit / S&P Global.

• The official PMI survey covers large and state-owned companies, while the Caixin PMI survey covers more small and medium-sized enterprises. As a result, the Caixin PMI is considered to be a more reliable indicator of the performance of China’s private sector.
• Another difference between the two surveys is their methodology. The Caixin PMI survey uses a broader sample of companies than the official survey. Despite these differences, the two surveys often provide similar readings on China’s manufacturing sector.

As for today, the June Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve a touch but to have contracted for a third straight month. We had monetary policy stimulus measures announced from the People’s Bank of China a couple of weeks ago but markets have been disappointed with the lack of new substantial fiscal support announced. Still waiting.