AUD/USD Price Analysis: Key SMAs prod Australia trade data-inspired rebound below 0.6670
- AUD/USD bounces off intraday low to print mild gains, pokes 50-SMA hurdle.
- Australia Trade Surplus widens, Exports and Imports grew in May.
- Clear downside break of weekly bullish channel, bearish MACD signals keep Aussie bears hopeful.
- Bulls need to cross 0.6700 trend line hurdle to retake control.
AUD/USD portrays a corrective bounce from the intraday low while picking up bids to 0.6665 after Australia trade numbers for May offer a positive surprise on early Thursday. In doing so, the Aussie pair prods the 50-SMA hurdle while reversing the previous day’s U-turn from the highest level in a week, as well as pares the first daily loss in five.
That said, Australia’s trade surplus rises to 11,791M MoM for May, compared with the expectations of 10,500M and 11,158M prior. Further, Exports grow 4.0% on a monthly basis while reversing the previous contraction of 5.0%. On the same line, imports rises 2% MoM and seasonally adjusted vs. 2.0% booked in April.
Also read: Australia Trade Surplus increases in May, AUD/USD remains pressured around mid-0.6600s
While the latest Aussie data lures AUD/USD buyers, the broad risk-off mood and the previous day’s rejection of a one-week-old bullish channel join the bearish MACD signals to keep the pair sellers hopeful.
That said, the latest recovery needs to reverse from the 50-SMA hurdle surrounding 0.6665, if not the stated channel’s bottom line of around 0.6670 and the 200-SMA level of near 0.6675 could challenge the AUD/USD bulls afterward.
It should be noted that the risk-barometer pair’s recovery past 0.6675 needs validation from a downward-sloping resistance line from June 27, close to the 0.6700 round figure, to convince the buyers.
Meanwhile, a one-week-old horizontal support zone around 0.6640-35 restricts the immediate downside of the AUD/USD pair before directing it towards the previous weekly bottom of 0.6595.
Following that, March’s low of near 0.6565 can act as the last defense of the AUD/USD buyers before highlighting the fears of witnessing a fresh yearly low, currently around 0.6460.
AUD/USD: Four-hour chart
Trend: Bearish