Forex Trading, News, Systems and More

Gold seems bewildered, needs more guidance about BRICS’s gold-backed currency


Share:

  • Gold price moves sideways as investors await for Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.
  • United States inflation cools beyond expectations but needs a continuation of the policy-tightening spell to return to the 2% target.
  • Investors seek more guidance about BRICS’ gold-backed currency, which would be used to settle international payments.

Gold price (XAU/USD) drops back inside the woods after printing a fresh two-month high of $1,987.53 on Thursday. The precious metal struggles to find any direction as investors have shifted their focus towards the interest-rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which will be announced on July 26. The Fed has signaled that two more interest-rate hikes this year are appropriate, but investors are still in favor of only one more interest rate increase.

United States inflation cooled significantly in June, continuing its softening spell as gasoline prices have dropped broadly and demand for second-hand automobiles remained soft. This week, the US economic calendar is light, so investors will likely keep an eye on guidance about interest rates. In addition to that, investors seek more guidance about the BRICS’ gold-backed currency, which would be used to settle international payments.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price remains sideways as Fed policy comes in focus

  • Gold price finds support near $1,978.00 after a corrective move from $1,987.50 as the upside in the US Dollar Index (DXY) seems limited.
  • The US Dollar Index rebounded after correcting to near 100.00. The upside in the USD index seems restricted amid an absence of supportive fundamentals.
  • Some strength is observed in the US Dollar Index after a sharp declining move as investors are awaiting the interest-rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
  • Consumer spending momentum has slowed but the broader picture shows it is still expanding.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other members of the FOMC have been reiterating that two more interest-rate hikes are appropriate to tighten the grip on inflation.
  • Even as inflation decelerated sharply in June, the Fed has not announced victory over inflation yet.
  • Inflation softened significantly in June as prices of second-hand automobiles dropped.
  • While Fed policymakers are favoring two more interest-rate hikes, investors anticipate only one more increase by year-end.
  • No matter if Fed policymakers would raise interest rates once or twice, the central bank would not discuss rate cuts this year.
  • Higher interest rates by the Fed have hit the housing sector. Monthly Housing Starts data reported by the United States Census Bureau on Wednesday showed that demand for new property has fallen to an annualized rate of 1.434 million in June, less than the estimates of 1.48 million and the prior release of 1.559 million.
  • The market mood is expected to turn cautious as the US corporate earnings season has kicked off. In addition to that, the Chinese economy has attracted steep cuts in economic growth prospects after weaker-than-expected second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers.
  • Meanwhile, investors are focusing on a new gold-backed currency announced by BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Investors are anticipating a formal announcement at the group’s next summit in August.
  • The introduction of a new gold-backed currency is expected to give a tough fight to the US Dollar Index as it could be used for making international payments.

Technical Analysis: Gold price juggles around $1,980

Gold price settles comfortably above the 20-daily Exponential Moving Average (EMA), confirming that the short-term trend is bullish. The precious metal has reached 50% Fibonacci retracement or the halfway point of the latest swing (plotted from May 4 high at $2,067.00 to June 29 low at $1,893.70) at $1,983.00.

Momentum oscillators have shifted into bullish territory, showing no signs of divergence or any oversold signals.

Interest rates FAQs

Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%.
If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.

Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.

Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.
If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.

The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure.
Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.