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Gold recovers despite weak gold demand reported by WGC fades, US employment in focus


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  • Gold price recovers as investors await US labor market data.
  • The US Dollar Index struggles for a firm footing as US Factory activities contract for ninth months consecutively.
  • The impact of a decline in Gold demand, reported by the World Gold Council, starts fading.

Gold price (XAU/USD) bounced back after gauging intermediate support near its three-week low around $1,940.00 on Wednesday. The precious metal discovers support as the impact of a decline in gold demand reported by the World Gold Council (WGC) fades and the United States Manufacturing PMI continues its contracting spell for the third quarter in a row.

A power-pack action is anticipated in the Gold price as Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will report US private employment data. The employment data will set the undertone for the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) for its September monetary policy meeting as labor market conditions have remained extremely tight.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price awaits US ADP labor market report

  • Gold price remains sideways around $1,950.00 as investors await United States labor market data for further guidance.
  • The precious metal witnessed heavy selling on Tuesday after the World Gold Council reported a decline in Gold demand by global central banks. Gold purchased by central banks in the first half of 2023 dropped by 2% YoY amid higher interest rates and costly bullion.
  • In addition to that, a significant recovery in United States factory orders kept the Gold price on a bearish trajectory.
  • US new factory orders surprisingly rose to 47.3 in July from downwardly revised expectations of 44.0 against June’s reading of 45.6.
  • The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported that Manufacturing PMI contracted for the ninth month in a row. July’s figure edged up to 46.4 from a previous figure of 46.0 but failed to match expectations of 46.8. All figures under 50.0 are contractionary.
  • A straight three-quarter contraction in the Manufacturing PMI is sufficient enough to display the consequences of an aggressive rate-tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve.
  • US JOLTS Job Openings dropped in July to 9.582M from its expectations and former reading. The July data recorded its lowest reading in more than two years as job changes waned due to easing wage growth.
  • For more guidance about the labor market, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and the Unemployment Rate, which will be published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. 
  • But before that, the entire focus will be on Automatic Data Processing Employment Change, which will be released at 12:15 GMT. Per estimates, US ADP will report the addition of fresh private payroll data in July by 189K vs. the strong addition of 497K recorded in June.
  • Tight labor market conditions could force the Fed to raise interest rates further in September monetary policy meeting.
  • Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that inflation is on track to return to 2% without elevating the jobless rate significantly.
  • The US Dollar Index (DXY) demonstrated a stellar recovery on Tuesday despite Fitch downgrading the United States government’s credit rating, citing concerns over forward fiscal spending.

Technical Analysis: Gold price forms H&S pattern

Gold price finds some support after printing a fresh three-week low at around $1,940.00 ahead of key labor market data. The precious metal trades below the 20 and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which indicates that the short and mid-term trend is bearish. Gold price forms a Head and Shoulders chart pattern on a lower time frame and a breakdown will occur if the asset fails to defend the neckline plotted around a fresh three-week low.

Interest rates FAQs

Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%.
If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.

Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.

Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.
If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.

The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure.
Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.