Silver Price Analysis: Bears take over and the XAG/USD loses the 20 and 100-day SMA

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• XAG/USD fell below $24.00, seeing losses of 2.40%.
• US private employment beat estimates in July.
• Higher US yields and a stronger dollar are driving commodities prices lower.

On Wednesday’s session, the XAG/USD Silver spot price fell to its lowest point since July 12 driven by a stronger USD to the $23.70 area. The DXY index is rising for a fifth consecutive day, mainly because the US economy is resilient and may push the Federal Reserve (Fed) not to halt its tightening cycle.

According to Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP), there were 324,000 employed people in the US in July, higher than the 189,000 expectations but lower than the revised number of 455,000 in June. As the labour market is still extremely tight, it may push the Fed to consider hiking in September, strengthening the USD.

In response, US bond yields and the opportunity cost of holding Silver are rising. The yields on the 5- and 10-year bonds increased by 4.26% and 4.10%, respectively, each by more than 1%. The 2-year yield increased by 0.60% on the day to 4.92%. 

As for now, according to the CME FedWatch tool, markets anticipate that the Fed won’t hike in September and bet on a low odd of 20% of a 25 basis point hike, while the chances of a hike in November top out at 30% in November.

XAG/USD Levels to watch

The daily chart analysis indicates a bearish outlook for the XAG/USD in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below its midline in negative territory, with a negative slope, aligning with the negative signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which displays red bars, reinforcing the strong bearish sentiment. On the other hand, the pair is below the 20 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), but above the 200-day SMA, indicating that the bulls aren’t done yet and that the outlook is still positive, looking at the bigger picture.

Support levels: $23.40,$23.15 (200-day SMA), $23.00.
Resistance levels. $24.00 (100-day SMA), $24.27 (20-day SMA), $24.50.

XAG/USD Daily chart