UBS S&P500 forecast is as high as 4700, base case | Forexlive

A snippet projection from UBS on the benchmark S&P500 index.

Analysts at the bank’s base case forecast for the index is to 4,500 in December 2023 and then 4,700 in June 2024. Citing:

• second-quarter reporting season likely marked the trough in year-over-year earnings growth
• guidance for the third quarter was positive
• we expect S&P 500 earnings per share to be flat in 2023 and rise 9% in 2024

The forecast represents what UBS analysts call a “modestly higher profile for equities over the next six to 12 months”.

• see a receding risk of a recession in the US
• continue to favor equity market laggards whose valuations are lower and have scope to catch up

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That last bullet point is an interesting one. there are plenty of arguments to go with strong stocks, not laggards. An eternal argument that one.