RBA unlikely to declare end of interest rate tightening cycle despite expected pause
- Interest rate in Australia is likely to remain unchanged at 4.10% in September.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia could leave the door open for more interest rate hikes.
- RBA policy guidance set to ramp up volatility around the Australian Dollar.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to follow the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and stand pat on Tuesday when it will announce its interest rate decision..
After surprising markets in four out of its last five policy announcements this year, the RBA is likely to offer no fireworks at Governor Philip Lowe’s last policy meeting.
Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision: All you need to know on Tuesday, September 5
- AUD/USD is sitting at five-day lows below 0.6450, as the US Dollar clings to recovery gains amid a cautious market mood.
- US S&P 500 futures post small losses, as worries over China’s property sector loom. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield recaptures the 4.20% level, up nearly 1% on the day.
- More policy action is expected from China, including relaxing restrictions on home buying. China’s embattled property developer, Country Garden, won approval from its creditors to extend payments for an onshore private bond on Monday.
- China’s Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) jumped back into expansion territory, coming in at 51.0 in August when compared to July’s contraction of 49.2. The data surprised the market to the upside, as expectations were for a 49.3 reading.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls data showed that employment rose by 187K in August, as against expectations of 170K. However, the previous reading was revised down sharply to 157K. Further, the US Unemployment Rate unexpectedly climbed to 3.8% while the annual Average Hourly Earnings rose 4.3% in August on year, compared with the expected increase of 4.4% in the reported month.
- The RBA interest-rate decision will likely provide near-term direction in the AUD/USD pair amid a relatively data-light week. The Australian central bank’s outgoing Governor Philip Lower is scheduled to deliver a speech titled “Some Closing Remarks” at the Anika Foundation, in Sydney, on Friday.
RBA interest rates expectations: How will it impact AUD/USD?
The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to maintain the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 4.10% following its September monetary policy meeting scheduled on Tuesday. The decision will be announced at 04:30 GMT.
Testifying before the Australian Parliament’s House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics in early August, RBA Governor Phillip Lowe said, “it is possible that some further tightening of monetary policy will be required to ensure that inflation returns to target within a reasonable timeframe but that will depend upon the data.” “Rates are restrictive so we are in the calibration stage with policy,” he said.
Inflation in Australia has cooled down significantly while the labor market conditions have loosened up, making a perfect case for an extended pause by the RBA. Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to a 17-month low of 4.9% in the year to July. A closely watched measure of core inflation, the trimmed mean, eased to 5.6% from 6.0%.
The country’s Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 3.7% in July, as against the expectations of 3.5% and the previous reading of 3.5%. Employment declined by 14.6K in July, compared with the consensus forecast of a 15K increase and 32.6K jobs addition seen in June. Deteriorating labor market conditions ease pressure on wage growth and demand-driven inflation.
Economists are expecting Governor Lowe to make no changes to the interest rate at his last meeting on September 5, as incoming Governor Michele Bullock takes over the reins on September 18 for a seven-year term. The RBA Governor-Designate said in a speech last week in Canberra that the central bank “may have to raise rates again, but watching data carefully.”
Bullock added, “inflation is still too high, that will be my first priority as governor.” Therefore, it seems that the RBA may leave the door open for more tightening, delivering a mildly hawkish outlook this week.
“Among major local banks, ANZ, CBA, and Westpac expect rates to remain unchanged until at least end-2023 while NAB predicted one more rate hike to 4.35% in November. Slightly less than two-thirds of respondents, 21 of 35, said rates would reach 4.35% or higher by end-year,” findings from the latest survey conducted by Reuters showed.
Economists at Standard Chartered offered their expectations from the RBA going forward, citing: “we lower our terminal rate forecast by 25bps but maintain a 25bps hike projection in November. Recent signs, including lower-than-expected CPI prints, allow RBA to adopt a wait-and-see approach. However, we see little margin for upside surprise to inflation given the already-patient RBA stance.”
The RBA forward guidance is set to rock the Australian Dollar, as traders will closely scrutinize the language in the monetary policy statement for hints on the central bank’s future interest rate path.
Meanwhile, Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, notes key technicals to trade AUD/USD on the policy outcome. “AUD/USD is struggling around the 21-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) at 0.6465 in the run-up to the RBA showdown. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds below the 50 level, keeping the downside risks intact for the Aussie.”
“If the 0.6400 support caves in, then a fresh downswing toward the August low of 0.6364 will be in the offing. Further down, the 0.6300 round figure will be challenged. On the flip side, acceptance above the 0.6522 static resistance is needed to initiate a meaningful recovery toward the 0.6600 level. The next topside barrier is seen at the August 2 high at 0.6630,” Dhwani added.
Australian Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.06% | 0.37% | 0.06% | 0.25% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | -0.01% | 0.04% | 0.34% | 0.04% | 0.23% | 0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.34% | 0.06% | 0.22% | 0.02% | |
| CAD | -0.08% | -0.03% | -0.04% | 0.27% | 0.00% | 0.16% | -0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.34% | -0.32% | -0.33% | -0.28% | -0.28% | -0.09% | -0.31% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.04% | 0.01% | 0.32% | 0.17% | -0.03% | |
| NZD | -0.24% | -0.20% | -0.22% | -0.17% | 0.12% | -0.17% | -0.19% | |
| CHF | -0.04% | -0.01% | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.30% | 0.02% | 0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.