UBS on Brent oil – strong fundamentals to support a $90–100/bbl range in coming months | Forexlive

A UBS analyst note on the oil price says their base case is that the price will not rise above $100 a barrel on a sustained basis over the next year.

Such a rise would draw a step higher in US production as well as weighing on demand.

UBS on supply factors:

• Saudi Arabia and Russia extending their extra supply cuts until the end of the year
• US oil output growth likely to slow as a result of lower drilling activity in recent months

• Global visible oil inventories fell sharply in August, at their lowest since July 2022 (citing International Energy Agency info)

On demand factors:

• Global oil demand is at a record 103 million barrels a day
• reopening of China and solid demand growth in India
• expect the rise in demand to slow back to the long-term growth rate of around 1.2 mbpd in 2024
• demand will continue to rise