NZDUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

NZD

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
  unchanged while
  stating that demand growth continues to ease and it’s expected to decline
  further with monetary conditions remaining restrictive.
• The New Zealand recent inflation data missed expectations supporting the
  RBNZ’s stance.
• The latest labour market report showed a notable increase in
  the unemployment rate and a slowdown in wage growth which is something that is
  likely to keep the RBNZ on the sidelines.
• The Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction
  followed by the Services PMI which fell back into contraction.
• The market doesn’t expect the RBNZ
  to hike anymore.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD reached
a key resistance zone
around the 0.61 handle where we can also find the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of
the entire fall from the 0.64 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to
start piling in with a defined risk above the Fibonacci level to position for a
drop into new lows.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is diverging with the
MACD right
into the key resistance. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often
followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be another
confirmation for the sellers that we might see at least a pullback from the
resistance. The buyers, on the other hand, are likely to lean on the swing low
around the 0.5950 level where they will also find the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a clear bullish trend on this timeframe. More aggressive buyers might want
to lean on the trendline where
they will also find the red 21 moving average for
confluence, and target a break above the key resistance. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to increase
the bullish bets into the lows.

Upcoming Events

This week is pretty empty on the data front with the US
on holiday for Thanksgiving Day in the final part of the week. Today, we have
the FOMC Meeting Minutes but it’s unlikely to be market moving given that it’s
three-weeks old data. Tomorrow, we have the US Jobless Claims report which is
probably going to be the most important release of the week. On Thursday, we
have the New Zealand Retail Sales while on Friday we conclude the week with the
latest US PMIs.