Australian monthly CPI for October 2023 4.9% y/y (vs. expected 5.2%) | Forexlive

Australian monthly CPI for October 2023 % y/y

• expected 5.2%, prior 5.6%
• trimmed mean inflation was 5.3% y/y in October, down slightly from the rise of 5.4% in September
• goods inflation 4.6% y/y (from 5.7% in September
• services inflation 5% (from 5.3%)
• the m/m CPI was -0.4% compared with September’s +0.3%

I mentioned earlier that I’d seen some speculation that the RBA will raise its cash rate at the next meeting, December 5, if today’s reading is high. And that the CPI would have to jump sharply, as the Bank has been waiting for the quarterly reading since it dialled back its hike-every-meeting pace. I think we can completely bury the idea of a December rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia now with this much lower-than-expected reading for the headline. The only niggle is the core, trimmed mean, which didn’t fall much at from its reading in September. Underlying inflation pressure is still solid.

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The monthly CPI data from Australia does not show all components of the CPI, that’ll have to wait for the quarterly data release.

• The monthly CPI indicator does, however, provide a timelier indication of inflation using the same data collected for use in the quarterly CPI. The monthly reading includes updated prices for between 62 and 73 per cent of the weight of the quarterly CPI basket, its not the full picture.
• Nevertheless the RBA pays it attention. The full quarterly reading will be on January 31 2024 for the October – December 2023 quarter.