WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis | Forexlive

Crude Oil got stuck in a
consolidation recently as the uncertainty increased due to conflicting signals
from the OPEC+ sources. In fact, we got a rally two weeks ago as some sources
said that we could get deeper supply cuts at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, but
eventually Crude Oil erased most of the gains following the news that the OPEC+
meeting got delayed. The expectations are for deeper cuts or an extension to
the existing ones, but given the current context, we will need surprisingly big
cuts to see a rally in Crude Oil prices or else the downtrend should resume
amid weakening demand and slowing global growth.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Crude Oil
recently has been consolidating due to the uncertainty around supply cuts and
the future demand outlook. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will
have a much better risk to reward setup around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
where there’s also the confluence with the
major trendline and the
key $80 level.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the latest leg
lower into the $72 level diverged with the
MACD, which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we got a pullback and then the price started to
consolidate waiting for a catalyst, which may come tomorrow with the OPEC+
meeting and the US Jobless Claims figures.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent rangebound price action between the resistance at $77
and the support at $74. This is still a bears’ market so if the price breaks to
the upside the buyers will need to break above the major trendline to
invalidate the bearish setup and switch the bias from bearish to bullish. The
sellers, on the other hand, will pile in around the $79-80 range to position
for new lows. Moreover, if the price breaks below the $74 support the sellers
will increase even more the bearish bets.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow we will get the US PCE and US Jobless Claims
data with the market likely focusing more on the latter given that we already
saw the latest inflation data with the US CPI report just two weeks ago. There
will also be the OPEC+ meeting with expectations of deeper cuts or extension of
existing ones. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US ISM Manufacturing
PMI which missed expectations by a big margin the last time.

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