Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: OPEC cut fails to impress the oil market | Forexlive
Markets:
- WTI crude oil down $2.31 to $75.54
- US 10-year yields up 6.7 bps to 4.33%
- Gold down $9 to $2035
- S&P 500 up 0.3%
- JPY leads, EUR lags
It’s always tough to make sense of month end and that was no different today with some moves that were tough to tie back to fundamentals.
The move in the euro was largely driven by a soft CPI report though the miss wasn’t as large as it looked because the market would have sniffed it out after the German numbers earlier in the week.
In general, the US dollar was bid and I tend to think that was flows but you could argue that Williams and Daly — who are both close to Powell — didn’t fully shift to neutral and that was a slight hawkish surprise. The market is now fully priced for a May 1 cut and that’s a stretch given the data so far and with a hawkish stance that will persist into January if it’s in the upcoming FOMC statement.
Speaking of data, the PCE numbers and initial jobless claims numbers were in line while a regional manufacturing number was strong. I don’t think the market is focused on manufacturing but all the numbers count right now and tomorrow the ISM manufacturing survey is out.
Oil was the other focus and we got the usual mess of OPEC leaks despite the virtual format. Ultimately, they delivered but the market didn’t like the ‘voluntary’ nature of the cuts. What was striking though was a $2 divergence in brent and WTI, which is extremely odd intraday. The Canadian dollar was also curiously strong despite a poor GDP report, some of that could be explained away by revisions but that will take some real spin in an economy that’s barely grown in Q2/3 with plenty of risks ahead. Yet CAD put in a decent day despite that and a drop in oil.
Ultimately, I’m not going to overthink and I’ll turn the page on what was a November to remember. Historically, great months in equity markets tend to result in solid months afterwards, so that’s worth keeping in mind.