AUDUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed
  once again that they are proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy
  tightening have yet to be felt.
• The US Core PCE last
  week came in line with forecasts with the disinflationary progress continuing
  steady.
• The labour market is starting to show weakness as Continuing Claims are now
  rising at a fast pace and the recent NFP report
  missed across the board.
• The ISM Manufacturing
  PMI
  last week missed expectations falling further into contraction.
• The recent US Consumer
  Confidence report beat expectations although the
  details about the labour market continued to weaken.
• The hawkish Fed members recently shifted
  their stance to a more neutral position.
• The market expects the Fed to start cutting rates
  as soon as Q1 2024.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected with the central bank
  maintaining the usual data dependent language.
• The
  recent Monthly CPI report missed expectations across
  the board which is a welcome development for the RBA.
• The
  RBA Governor Bullock has been leaning on a more hawkish side recently, although
  she remains optimistic on the future outlook.
• The
  labour market continues to weaken as seen also
  recently with the bulk of jobs added being part-time.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  recent Australian PMIs fell further into contraction for
  both the Manufacturing and Services sectors.
• The
  market expects the RBA to start cutting rates in Q4 2024.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD managed
to rally again into the key trendline but
eventually sold off as the buyers failed to break above it. The sellers piled
in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into the key support zone
around the 0.65 handle. That’s where the buyers should step in again as they
will also find the confluence with the
red 21 moving average.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
been diverging with the
MACD into the
key trendline. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it was another bearish confluence with
the sellers piling in aggressively after the failed breakout. The price found
some support this morning at the recent swing low after the selloff following
the RBA rate decision.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that if we
were to get a pullback from the swing low, the sellers should lean on the
downward trendline where they will also find the confluence with the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level and the red 21 moving average. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally into the
major trendline and target a breakout again.

Upcoming Events

This week we will see lots of US labour
market data culminating with the NFP release on Friday. Today, we have the ISM
Services PMI and the US Job Openings reports. Tomorrow, we will get the US ADP
data. On Thursday, it will be the time for the US Jobless Claims figures, while
on Friday we conclude the week with the NFP report.