AUDUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected with a shift in the statement that
  indicated the end of the tightening cycle.
• The Summary of Economic Projections showed a
  downward revision to Growth and Core PCE in 2024 while the Unemployment Rate
  was left unchanged. Moreover, the Dot Plot was revised to show three rate cuts
  in 2024 compared to just two in the last projection.
• Fed Chair Powell didn’t push back against the strong dovish pricing
  and even said that they are focused on not making the mistake of holding rates
  high for too long, which implies a rate cut coming soon.
• The US CPI last week came in line with expectations
  with the disinflationary progress continuing steady. This was also confirmed by
  the US PPI the day after where the data missed
  estimates.
• The labour market has been showing signs of
  weakening lately but we got some strong releases recently with the US Jobless Claims and the NFP coming
  in strongly.
• The US Retail Sales last week beat expectations across the board as
  consumer spending continues to hold.
• The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI missed expectations falling further into
  contraction, while the ISM Services PMI beat forecasts holding on in expansion.
• The market expects the Fed to start cutting rates
  in Q1 2024.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with
  the central bank maintaining the usual data dependent language.
• The
  recent Monthly CPI report missed expectations across
  the board which is a welcome development for the RBA.
• The
  RBA Governor Bullock has been leaning on a more hawkish side recently, although
  she remains optimistic on the future outlook.
• The
  latest labour market report beat forecasts across the
  board although the unemployment rate rose more than expected.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  Australian PMIs improved recently but remain in
  contraction.
• The
  market expects the RBA to start cutting rates in Q4 2024.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD recently
broke above the key trendline
following the surprisingly dovish FOMC meeting. This has opened the door for a
rally into the 0.68 resistance where we
can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to target
a drop back into the 0.65 support.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair
started to consolidate just above the recent high at the 0.6680 level. This is
where the buyers piled in with the red 21 moving average adding
some confluence. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the
support to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into the 0.65
support.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the rangebound price action between the 0.6680 support and the 0.6730
resistance. The breakout to the upside points to another rally into the 0.68
handle, so the we might see the buyers piling in with more conviction now.

Upcoming Events

This week is a bit empty on the data front as we head
into the Christmas holidays. Tomorrow, we have the US Consumer Confidence
report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims data, while on Friday
we conclude the week with the US PCE report.