Gold price struggles for a firm intraday direction amid mixed Fed rate cut cues
- Gold price lacks any firm intraday direction and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces.
- A slew of Fed officials push back against bets for early rate cuts and cap the upside for the metal.
- Geopolitical risks continue to act as a tailwind as traders look to the US PCE Price Index on Friday.
Gold price (XAU/USD) fails to capitalize on the previous day’s modest uptick and oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Tuesday. A slew of influential Federal Reserve (Fed) officials recently tried to push back against market expectations for early interest rate cuts in 2024, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Apart from this, the underlying bullish tone across the global equity markets further contributes to capping the upside for the precious metal.
The US central bank, however, took a dovish turn last week and projected an average of three 25 basis points (bps) of rate cuts in 2024, which keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and lends some support to the Gold price. Apart from this, the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tension in the Middle East should help limit any meaningful downside for the safe-haven XAU/USD. Traders might also prefer to wait for a key US inflation reading – the Core PCE Price Index on Friday – before placing directional bets.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price struggles to gain traction amid mixed macroeconomic cues
- Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee, along with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, pushed back against market bets on interest rate cuts on Monday.
- Goolsbee said that he was confused over the market reaction to last week’s FOMC meeting and that the central bank is not precommiting to cutting rates soon and swiftly.
- Separately, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester noted that financial markets had gotten a little bit ahead of the central bank on when to expect interest rate cuts next year.
- This comes on the back of New York Fed President John Williams’s remarks on Friday that it was premature to speculate about rate cuts and caps the upside for the Gold price.
- The markets, however, seem convinced that the Fed will pivot to easing by the first half of 2024, which continues to undermine the US Dollar and lends support to the metal.
- Concerns over geopolitical risks linked to the conflict in the Middle East should further contribute to limiting any meaningful downfall for the safe-haven precious metal.
- Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi militants launched a series of drone and missile attacks on ships in the southern Red Sea, which it says are a response to Israel’s assault on the Gaza Strip.
- US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin announced the formation of a multinational coalition and the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian to address the Houthi threat in the Red Sea.
- Investors now look forward to the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday for clues about the Fed’s future policy decisions.
Technical Analysis: Gold price could appreciate further once $2,040 supply zone is cleared
From a technical perspective, the Gold price needs to find acceptance above the $2,040 supply zone for bulls to seize near-term control. This is followed by last week’s swing high, around the $2,049-2,050 region, which if cleared will set the stage for a move towards the next relevant barrier near the $2,072-2,073 area. The upward trajectory could get extended further and allow the XAU/USD to reclaim the $2,100 round-figure mark.
On the flip side, the $2,015 area might continue to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 2,010 horizontal resistance breakpoint and the $2,000 psychological mark. A convincing break below the latter will make the Gold price vulnerable to challenge the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, currently pegged near the $1,985 level before dropping to last week’s swing low, around the $1,973 area. Bears might then aim to test the 200-day SMA, near the $1,956 zone.
US Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.06% | -0.31% | 0.46% | -0.31% | -0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.05% | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.25% | 0.51% | -0.25% | 0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.02% | -0.23% | 0.53% | -0.24% | 0.02% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | 0.01% | -0.01% | -0.25% | 0.50% | -0.25% | 0.00% | |
| AUD | 0.30% | 0.26% | 0.23% | 0.25% | 0.76% | 0.00% | 0.24% | |
| JPY | -0.46% | -0.49% | -0.54% | -0.52% | -0.77% | -0.76% | -0.51% | |
| NZD | 0.31% | 0.25% | 0.23% | 0.24% | 0.00% | 0.77% | 0.24% | |
| CHF | 0.06% | -0.01% | -0.02% | 0.00% | -0.24% | 0.52% | -0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.