ECB’s Kazaks: Rates to remain at 4.00% for some time, first rate cut could come around mid-2024
The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said late Wednesday that the central bank needs to keep interest rates at the current level for some time, but the first rate cut could come later than investors are pricing around the mid-2024
Key quotes
“Most likely it looks like in the middle of next year — in June or July,”
“But in the spring at the current moment that’s too early.”
“The pace of rate cuts is really dependent on how the economy really behaves and what happens to the economy.”
Market reaction
The comments above have little to no impact on the Euro. The EUR/USD pair is trading higher at 1.0944, up 0.11% on the day.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.