The JPY is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins | Forexlive

The JPY is the strongest and the USD is the weakest of the major currencies as the North American session begins. Yesterday, the US stocks broke its string of up days at 9-days. Today, futures are implying a higher open as it shrugs off the selloff. Yields moved lower yesterday despite the fall in stocks (don’t blame the stock declines on interest rates). Today, yields are little changed.

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, in a recent interview, emphasized that it is too early to consider easing monetary policy. He pointed out that current interest rates are successfully bringing down inflation and suggested that any policy easing would only be considered once inflation is consistently near the 2% target. However, he noted that it’s still premature for such measures.

The European Central Bank remains committed to a data-dependent approach, with recent data showing favorable trends but not yet strong enough to warrant a change in policy. Despite the ECB’s cautious stance, the market is speculating on the possibility of a rate cut, with expectations for a reduction as early as next April and a 51% likelihood of a move occurring in March.

Meanwhile in the US, Fed Pres. Harker yesterday did say the Fed is done with tightening, but did say that the inflation problem is not yet solved. The markets are still pricing in a 68% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points as early as March.

Today in the North American session, there is a data dump as the clock ticks to the holiday season next week. A snapshot of the calendar shows:

8:30am – CAD Economic Indicators:

• Core Retail Sales m/m: Forecast 0.5%, Previous 0.2%.
• Retail Sales m/m: Forecast 0.8%, Previous 0.6%.

8:30am – USD Economic Indicators:

• Final GDP q/q: Forecast 5.2%, Previous 5.2%.
• Unemployment Claims: Forecast 214K, Previous 202K. Continuing claims are est 1.888M vs 1.876M last week.
• Final GDP Price Index q/q: Forecast 3.6%, Previous 3.6%.
• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Forecast -3.3, Previous -5.9.

10:00am – USD Economic Indicator:

• CB Leading Index m/m: Forecast -0.5%, Previous -0.8%.

A snapshot of the markets to kickstart the North American session shows:

• Crude oil is trading down -$0.89 or -1.22% at $73.31.. Yesterday at this time, the price was trading at $75.01.
• Spot gold is trading above $5.54 or 0.28% at $2037.49. Yesterday at this time the price was trading at $2035.08
• Spot silver trading up $0.10 or 0.41% at $24.23. Yesterday at this time the price was trading at $24.01
• Bitcoin is trading higher at $44,049. Yesterday, at this time the price was trading at $43,185.

In the US stock market, the major indices futures imply a higher opening after snapping the Dow and NASDAQ nine-day win streak yesterday

• Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 145 points. Yesterday, the index fell -475.92 points or -1.27% at 37082.01
• S&P index futures are implying a gain of. 23.40 points Yesterday, the index fell-70.02.or -1.47% at 4698.34
• NASDAQ index futures are implying a gain of 144 points. Yesterday, the index fell -225.28 points or -1.50% at 14777.94

In the European equity markets, the major indices are mostly lower

• German DAX, -0.42%
• France’s CAC, -0.44%
• UK’s FTSE 100, -0.50%
• Spain’s Ibex, -0.21%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.63% (10 minute delay).

In the Asia Pacific market, major indices closed mostly lower:

• Japan’s Nikkei index, -1.59%
• China’s Shanghais composite index, +0.57%
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, +0.04%
• Australia’s S&P/ASX index, -0.45%

In the US debt market, yields are marginally lower:

• US 2Y T-NOTE: 4.353% -1.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.381%
• US 5Y T-NOTE: 3.857% -1.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 325%
• US 10Y T-NOTE: 3.858%, -1.9 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 322%
• US 30Y BOND: 3.998% -0.6 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.003%
• 2 – 10-year spread is trading at -49.6 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the spread was at -50.0 basis points
• 2 – 30 year spread is trading at -35.4 basis points. Yesterday this time the spread was at -38.1 basis points

In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are trading lower.