AUDUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
expected while dropping the tightening bias in the statement but adding a
slight pushback against a March rate
cut.
Fed Chair Powell stressed
that they want to see more evidence of inflation falling back to target and
that a rate cut in March is not their base case.
The US CPI beat
expectations for the second consecutive month with the disinflationary trend
reversing.
The US Initial Claims beat
expectations while Continuing Claims missed. Overall, the data remains steady.
The ISM Manufacturing
PMI
surprised to the upside with the new orders index, which is considered a
leading indicator, jumping back into expansion. Similarly, the ISM Services PMI beat
expectations across the board with the employment sub-index erasing the prior
drop and prices paid jumping above 60.
The US Retail Sales missed
expectations across the board by a big margin.
The market now expects the first rate cut in June.

AUD

The
RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected with the central bank
maintaining the usual tightening bias and data dependent language.
The
recent Monthly CPI report missed expectations across
the board which was a welcome development for the RBA.
The
latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
margin.
The
wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
growth in Australia remains strong.
The
latest Australian PMIs improved with the Manufacturing
measure bouncing back into expansion while the Services one remains in
contraction.
The
market expects the first rate cut in June.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

AUDUSD Daily

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD is now
breaking above the trendline and the support-turned-resistance around
the 0.6520 level. The buyers will need the pair to rally above the red 21 moving average to
confirm the change in trend. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely pile
in around the moving average to position for a drop into new lows.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

AUDUSD 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
been diverging with the
MACD for
quite a while. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. In this case, a break above the 0.6542 level should
confirm a reversal and trigger a strong move to the upside as the buyers will
likely pile in more aggressively. This will be a key level for the sellers as
that’s where the daily 21 moving average is standing.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

AUDUSD 1 hour

On the
1 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the current
bullish momentum. This is where the buyers are stepping in as they have also
the confluence with
the red 21 moving average. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to pile in and target new lows.