US Dollar gets overpowered by Euro with DXY sinking below 104
- The US Dollar sinks in the red after the first opening bell for this week
- The Euro is advancing firmly against the US Dollar after report shows wages in Eurozone remain elevated, attributing to sticky inflation.
- The US Dollar Index breaks further below 104 after the US opening bell.
The US Dollar (USD) is turning deep red in its first US opening bell of this week, with markets seeing European yields soaring against steady US rates. The uptick in European rates comes after an European Central Bank (ECB) report that sees wages in the Eurozone elevated and holding strong, which could push the first ECB rate cut further down the line than first anticipated. Next to that markets are not applauding the overnight move by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to cut its 5-year Loan Prime Rate.
China is playing in a whole other ballpark in terms of economic data with deflation, a sluggish job market, a haunted housing market and abating growth. The cuts are bigger than expected, though the market reaction is signalling more needs to be done in order to give China the boost to head back to its pre-pandemic growth and economic levels.
On the economic data front, The US Treasury will have its work cut out this Tuesday with no less than three bond auctions coming up. For more economic data, most data points are pushed forward to Wednesday due to the public holiday on Monday. All eyes are on the retailers in the stock markets this week with Walmart and Home Depot releasing earnings this Tuesday.
Daily digest market movers: European rates drive the Greenback weaker
- The February Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index came in at -8.8, coming from -3.7..
- European bond yields are jumping higher against US bond yields this Tuesday after the European Central Bank (ECB) released a report that revealed wages in the Eurozone are still remaining elevated, which could add to sticky inflatoin in the coming months, pushing back on current rate cut expectations. This pushes the Euro up against the US Dollar to 1.08, a level not seen since February 2nd.
- China has lowered its Loan Prime Rate in the following maturities:
- 1-year tenor unchanged at 3.45% where 3.40% was expected.
- the 5-year tenor cut from 4.20% to 3.95%, where 4.10% was expected.
- European car sales jumped 11% in January.
- The US Treasury department is doing a triple auction at 16:30 GMT. A 3-month, a 6-month and a 52-week bill will be auctioned.
- Equities are still in the red, looking for direction. Meanwhile, the extreme end of the risk assets is doing great with Ethereum and Bitcoin jumping substantially higher.
- The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is now looking at the March 20th meeting. Expectations for a pause are 91.5%, while 8.5% for a rate cut.
- The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades a little bit higher, near 4.28%, after its close on Friday at 4.28% and being closed over Monday due to the US public holiday.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: US Dollar overshadowed by Euro
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding its ground above 104 though pressure is mounting again on the support level. This does not mean anything substantial as this Tuesday is actually Monday after the US was closed due to President’s Day. Expect to see traders catch up, with the first moves taking place on Wednesday in the buildup to the US Federal Reserve Minutes release on Wednesday evening.
Should the US Dollar jump to 105.00 by Friday, 105.12 is a key level to keep an eye on. One step beyond there comes 105.88, the high of November 2023. Ultimately, 107.20 – the high of 2023 – could even come back into scope, but that would be when several inflation measures are coming in higher than expected for several weeks in a row.
The 100-day Simple Moving Average looks to be holding for now, though pressure is building on it to snap, near 104.18, so the 200-day SMA near 103.70 looks more solid. Should that give way, look for support from the 55-day SMA near 103.14.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.