Fed’s Powell and Mester: Rate cuts likely this year, but inflation remains a risk

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Appearances from multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers crossed the newswires on Thursday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell added to earlier comments while testifying before the US Senate Banking Committee, and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester struck similar chords while speaking at the Virtual European Economics and Financial Center.

Key highlights:

• Powell:
  • Waiting to be more confident, we are not far from it.
  • Expects bank failures from commercial real estate, but not any big banks. Small and medium-sized banks have biggest exposure.
  • Believes Fed is in the right place on policy.
  • Could see a case for shortening maturity of Fed holdings.
  • Expects food inflation to continue flattening.

• Mester:
  • Inflation may prove persistent this year.
  • If the economy meets forecasts, rate cuts would be likely later this year.
  • The biggest mistake would be premature Fed rate cuts.
  • Fed has the luxury of holding steady while taking in more data.
  • Expects Fed rate reduction to be very gradual.