Forex Trading, News, Systems and More

US Dollar loses ground as investors takes profits, eyes on labor data

  • Tuesday’s highlight was the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting on strong JOLTs Job Openings figures for February.
  • Markets await additional data to guide easing cycle expectations, widely expected to commence in June. 
  • Events on the horizon this week include Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, and Unemployment rate.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades at 104.95 with mild losses. The Federal Reserve (Fed) and economic data are giving signals of a solid US economy, which made markets back off on being fully confident of a June rate cut. Labor data this week will continue modeling those expectations.

The US economy remains resilient as the Federal Reserve adopts a cautious approach under the leadership of Powell. Despite forecasts indicating higher inflation, the Fed is avoiding drastic reactions to temporary price spikes. The potential beginning of a monetary easing phase in June is contingent upon future economic data. Several Fed speakers will be on the wires on Tuesday.

Daily digest market movers: DXY loses ground despite strong labor data

  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the US published the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February, which showed 8.75M job openings.
  • This figure surpassed January’s adjusted count of 8.74M and overtook the market expectation of 8.74M. 
  • As for now, the market foresees a 63% probability of the first 25 bps rate cut in June, which is still contingent on incoming data.
  • US Treasury bond yields are mixed on Tuesday with the 2-year yield at 4.70%, indicating slight downward movement. In contrast, 5 and 10-year yields at 4.34% and 4.36%, respectively, show minor increases.
  • Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, and Unemployment Rate data will dictate the pace of expectations and the US Dollar for the short term.

DXY technical analysis: DXY bulls take a breather but retain control

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is on a negative slope, although still in positive territory, implying a possible weakening of buying momentum. This may be a hint that the bulls are taking a breather at this point after driving the index to its highest level since mid-February. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows decreasing green bars, further indicating that the bullish momentum seems to be losing steam.

Despite showing a negative outlook in the short term, the pair is operating above its 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). This suggests that the overall trend remains predominantly bullish.

Fed FAQs

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.