USDCAD Technical Analysis – Playing the range | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed
  three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth
  and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.
• Fed Chair Powell
  maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was premature to react to the
  recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way to their 2% target.
• The US CPI and
  the US PPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month.
• The US Jobless Claims beat
  expectations last week.
• The US ISM
  Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with
  the prices component continuing to increase.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence missed expectations although the labour
  market details improved.
• The market now sees basically a 50/50 chance of a
  cut in June.

CAD

• The BoC left interest rates unchanged at
  5.00% as expected at the last meeting stating that further easing in underlying
  inflation is needed.
• The latest Canadian CPI missed expectations across the
  board with the underlying inflation measures falling.
• On the labour market side, the latest report beat
  expectations but we saw a fall in wage growth which is something that the BoC
  is watching closely.
• The Canadian PMIs improved in February
  although they remain both in contractionary territory.
• The market expects the first rate
  cut in June.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD bounced
recently around the red 21 moving average and it’s
now looking again to the 1.3620 resistance. That’s
where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level
to position for a drop into the lower bound of the channel. The buyers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish
bets into the upper bound of the channel.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
been stuck in a range between the 1.3450 support and the 1.3620 resistance
although the pair continued to print higher lows indicating a bullish bias.
There’s not much else to glean from this chart, so we need to zoom in to see
some more details.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price recently broke an important zone around the 1.3560 level where we can
find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level and the red 21 moving average. This
is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone
to position for a break above the 1.3620 resistance. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop into the
lower bound of the channel.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the US Job Openings and tomorrow the
US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures while on Friday we conclude with the Canadian Jobs data and the
US NFP report.