EURUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no
  change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and
  the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the
  unemployment rate lower.
• Fed Chair Powell maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was
  premature to react to the recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way
  to their 2% target.
• The US CPI and the US PPI beat expectations for the second
  consecutive month.
• The US Jobless Claims beat expectations last week.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with
  the prices component continuing to increase.
• The US Consumer Confidence missed expectations although the labour
  market details improved.
• The market now sees basically a 50/50 chance of a
  cut in June.

EUR

• The ECB left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting revising inflation and growth expectations
  downwards and maintaining the usual data dependent language.
• The recent Eurozone CPI beat
  expectations.
• The labour market remains historically
  tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record lows.
• The latest Eurozone PMIs beat
  expectations on the Services side while the Manufacturing one missed dropping
  further in contraction.
• The market expects the ECB to cut rates in June.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD recently
broke below the 1.08 support
following strong US data. The price bounced on the key 1.0723 level and it’s
now approaching the 1.08 support turned resistance where we
can also find the blue 8 moving average for confluence. This is
where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the
resistance to position for a break below the 1.0723 level. The buyers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish
bets into the 1.10 handle.

EURUSD Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely the resistance
around the 1.08 handle where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. If the price were to get there, we can expect the sellers to step
in to position for the break of the 1.0723 level. The buyers will need to break
above this resistance to invalidate the bearish setup and start targeting new
highs.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a minor support zone around the 1.0760 level where we can find the
confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving
average. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk
below the level to position for a break above the resistance with a better risk
to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the Eurozone CPI and later in the day,
the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures while on Friday we conclude the week with the US NFP report.

See the video below