USDCHF Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected with basically no change to the
  statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic
  projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment
  rate lower.
• Fed Chair Powell maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was
  premature to react to the recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way
  to their 2% target.
• The US CPI and the US PPI beat expectations for the second
  consecutive month.
• The US Jobless Claims beat expectations last week.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with
  the prices component continuing to increase.
• The US Consumer Confidence missed expectations although the labour
  market details improved.
• The market now sees basically a 50/50 chance of a
  cut in June.

CHF

• The SNB cut interest rates by 25 bps bringing the policy rate
  to 1.50% vs. 1.75% prior.
• The latest Switzerland CPI beat expectations slightly although
  the Core measure eased further.
• The Unemployment Rate remains steady at cycle lows.
• The Manufacturing PMI improved further although it
  remains in contraction, while the Services PMI hold on in expansion.
• The central bank will likely cut
  interest rates again in June if inflation continues to fall.

USDCHF Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF is
approaching the key resistance at
0.9112. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk
above the level to position for a drop into the trendline. The
buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to start
targeting the 0.9240 level next. If we do get a pullback from the 0.9112
resistance, the buyers should lean on the trendline where they will also find
the red 21 moving average for confluence.

USDCHF Technical Analysis –
4-hour Timeframe

On the 4-hour chart, we can see that we have another
minor trendline defining the current bullish momentum with the red 21 moving
average adding some extra support. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we
can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below it to position for a
breakout above the resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking lower to position for a drop into the major trendline.

USDCHF Technical Analysis –
1-hour Timeframe

On the 1-hour chart, we can see that we
have some consolidation at the moment between another trendline and a
counter-trendline which formed a symmetrical triangle. If the price breaks to
the downside, the buyers will still find the support at the 0.9055 level where
they will have the confluence of the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level. Conversely, if the price breaks to
the upside, we can expect the buyers to pile in to extend the rally into the
0.9112 resistance.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the US ADP and the US ISM Services
PMI. Tomorrow, we get the latest Switzerland CPI report and the US Jobless
Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.