US Dollar continues to decline due to weak ISM PMI data
- Weak ISM PMI report for May and decreasing US Treasury yields weigh on USD.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI report increases odds of Fed rate cut in September.
- Markets awaiting upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report and wage growth data.
On Monday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continued its decline toward the 104.15 area mainly due to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) PMI report for May. The data led to a decline in US Treasury yields and a slight increase in the odds of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September.
Market attention has now shifted toward labor market data, specifically the Nonfarm Payrolls report for May, for investors to gather additional data on the US economy.
Daily digest market movers: DXY retreats due to weak ISM data
- Investors are signaling concerns with the ISM PMI report due to indications of a contracting manufacturing sector.
- The ISM Manufacturing PMI for May contracted to 48.7, falling below both the expected 49.6 and April’s 49.2, as per the ISM data released on Monday.
- The lower-than-expected PMI data led to an increase in market-based probabilities of a Fed interest rate cut in September.
- Following the release, the probability of a rate cut in September increased to nearly 60%.
- Markets eagerly await the Nonfarm Payrolls report for May, due later this week, which may influence the Fed’s future decisions.
- US Treasury yields saw a sharp decline with the 2, 5 and 10-year yields falling more than 2%.
DXY technical analysis: US Dollar struggles as negative indicators resurface
The DXY fell below the 20, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) on Monday due to the disappointing ISM PMI report. This caused the index to enter a bearish phase.
Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) fell into negative territory, indicating a rise in bearish sentiment and selling pressure. However, as the pair now tallies a three-day losing streak there are chances that buyers might step in for a slight upwards correction.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.