First Federal Reserve rate cut set to come in December despite slowing inflation – RBC

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 3.3% in May from 3.4% in April. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ‎and other Fed officials will be relieved that price growth took a step back, says Nathan Janzen, Assistant Chief Economist at the Royal Bank of Canada. Still, the bank’s main scenario is that the Fed won’t cut interest rates until the end of the year, in December.

Softer-than-expected CPI set to put Fed on hold

“Year-over-year CPI growth edged down to 3.3% in May from 3.4% in April, softer than expected. Prices of core services ex-rent edged slightly lower from April in May (-0.04%), the lowest MoM reading since September 2021.”

“Core (excluding food and energy prices) price growth slowed to 3.4% from 3.6% YoY on a more normal looking 0.2% MoM increase in May, the first increase under 0.3% since October. Energy price growth ticked higher YoY with a drop in gasoline prices from April (-3.6%).” 

“Federal Reserve officials will be relieved that price growth took a step back in May after signs of reacceleration earlier this year. Further data should help to reinforce Fed Chair Powell’s view that interest rates are already at ‘restrictive’ enough levels. Our own base-case assumes the first Fed rate cut will come in December.”