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US Dollar pops, fueled by EU sovereign issues and BoJ’s slow burner

  • The US Dollar trades firmly in the green while the Japanese Yen and the Euro weaken. 
  • The BoJ said it is set to ease its bond-buying program, while European sovereign bond yields increase due to political uncertainty in France.. 
  • The US Dollar index trades above 105.50 and could head towards year-to-date highs.

The US Dollar (USD) rallies on Friday as traders flee out of the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Euro (EUR). The renewed strength in the Greenback comes as sovereign bond yields in some countries in the Eurozone, particularly France, are spiking on the back of political uncertainty. In Asia, the weaker Japanese Yen is the result of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy meeting, which concluded with Governor Kazuo Ueda’s announcement that the bank is set to relax its bond-buying program. 

On the economic data front, markets seem to be ignoring the recent soft inflation figures and focusing on a still hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed). On Friday, the calendar offers import-export data price data and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations survey. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee and Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will drop some comments during the US session. 

Daily digest market movers: Michigan will be on fire

  • Two non-USD drivers triggered ample US Dollar strength across the board on Friday:the Eurozone bond crunch – with sovereign yields rising in countries like Italy and France – and the outcome of the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting. 
  • The USD/JPY pair climbs back to nearly 158.00 after the BoJ announced it will ease its bond-buying program. This might trigger a freefall in bond prices and a rise in yields, triggering further Yen weakness. 
  • At 12:30 GMT, US Import and Export prices for May will be released. Monthly Import prices are expected to rise 0.1%, down from the 0.9% increase seen in April. Monthly Export prices should stabilize following the 0.5% increase a month earlier.
  • At 14:00 GMT, the University of Michigan will release its preliminary report for June:
    • Consumer Sentiment is expected to jump back to 72.0 from 69.1.
    • The five-year inflation expectations rate stood at 3% at the end of April. 
  • Near 18:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee participates in a fireside chat at the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit.
  • At 23:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivers a speech at the 50 Years celebration of the American Economic Association Summer Program in Washington D.C.
  • Equity markets are painting a similar pattern compared to the last few trading sessions, with European equities in the red and US futures holding onto gains. 
  • The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 31.5% chance of Fed interest rate remaining at the current level in September. Odds for a 25-basis-points rate cut stand at 60.5%, while a very slim 7.9% chance is priced in for a 50-basis-points rate cut.
  • The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note slides to the lowest level for this month, near 4.22%, flirting with the lows seen in March. 

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Outside influence

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is getting help from both the Japanese Yen and the Euro this Friday. With both currencies accounting for nearly 70% of the basket forming the US Dollar Index, when both weaken, the Greenback gains without doing anything. With still a few weeks to go before the French elections and the BoJ taking it very slowly, the Greenback could get some further support in the coming weeks. 

On the upside, no big changes to the levels traders need to watch out for. The first is 105.52 where the DXY is trading around at this moment, a level that held during most of April. The next level to watch is 105.88, which triggered a rejection at the start of May and will likely play its role as resistance again. Further up, the biggest challenge remains at 106.51, the year-to-date high from April 16. 

On the downside, the trifecta of Simple Moving Averages (SMA) is still playing support. First is the 55-day SMA at 105.07. A touch lower, near 104.48, both the 100-day and the 200-day SMA are forming a double layer of protection to support any declines. Should this area be broken, look for 104.00 to salvage the situation. 

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.