US Dollar weakens as markets asses Retail Sales figures from May
- US Dollar lost ground on lower-than-anticipated Retail Sales figures, which fuel dovish bets on the Fed.
- Markets are digesting comments from Fed officials for placing their bets on the rate cut cycle.
- Investors continue challenging the Fed and bet on more than one cut in 2024.
On Tuesday, the US Dollar, as measured by the DXY Index (DXY), registered a decline, settling at 105.30. This downturn was mainly invoked by markets reacting to recent comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials in combination with the less than anticipated Retail Sales data for May.
The US economic outlook is riddled with mixed signals, but signs of disinflation are starting to arise, which may weaken the USD.
Daily digest market movers: DXY under pressure on disappointing Retail Sales figures
- Markets are now processing words from Fed speakers along with the just-released Retail Sales figures for May.
- On the data front, the US Census Bureau reported May’s Retail Sales data growth at a slower pace of 0.1% against the projected 0.2%.
- A softening in Retail Sales growth could potentially affect the US Dollar by affirming investors’ belief in the ongoing disinflation process.
- Regarding the Fed speakers, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed her preference to observe a “longer run of good-looking inflation data” before any significant decisions are taken.
- Simultaneously, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, intimated that the Fed might wait until December for any further rate cuts, favoring the acquisition of more data before any actions are undertaken.
- Several other speakers will be on the wires on Tuesday, and their words might shake the USD.
DXY technical analysis: Momentum flattens, bulls running out of time
Technical indicators suggest a flattening momentum but still retain a positive stance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 level, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to print green bars.
With the bullish activity taking a pause, the DXY Index continues to hold above its 20, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The slowing down of the momentum from last week might indicate a possible slowdown in the recent rally of the DXY.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.