Gold gains ground amid Fed rate cut hopes

• Gold price kicks off the new week on a positive note and stalls Friday’s pullback from a two-week top.
• Bets that the Fed will cut rates in September Fed and geopolitical risk lend support to the XAU/USD.
• The USD stands tall near its highest level since May 9 and might act as a headwind for the commodity.

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers during the early European trading bours on Monday and recovers a part of its retracement slide from a two-week high touched on Friday. Despite the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish surprise, forecasting only one rate cut in 2024, the markets are still pricing in the possibility of two rate cuts this year amid signs of easing inflationary pressures. This, in turn, is seen weighing on the US Treasury bond yields, which, along with a softer risk tone, geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty in Europe, lend support to the safe-haven commodity. 

Meanwhile, the stronger-than-expected US PMIs released on Friday pointed to a still resilient economy. This assists the US Dollar (USD) to build on last week’s positive move and climb to its highest level since May 9, which keeps a lid on any further gains for the Gold price. Traders also seem reluctant and prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of this week’s important US macro release – the final Q1 GDP print and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. In the meantime, comments by influential FOMC members will be looked upon for short-term opportunities. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price remains supported by September Fed rate cut bets

• A combination of diverging forces fails to provide any meaningful impetus to the Gold price and leads to subdued range-bound price action on the first day of a new week. 
• The Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish stance at the end of the June meeting, while policymakers continue to argue in favor of only one interest rate cut by the end of this year. 
• This, along with Friday’s better-than-expected US flash PMIs, lifts the US Dollar to its highest level since May 9 and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the commodity. 
• The flash US composite PMI edged up from 54.5 in May to 54.6 this month, or the highest level since April 2022, suggesting that the economy ended the second quarter on a solid note.
• Meanwhile, the prices paid for inputs measure dropped to 56.6 from 57.2 previous, while the output prices gauge fell to 53.5, marking one of the slowest rises over the past four years.
• This comes on the back of softer US consumer and producer prices, which, along with last week’s disappointing US Retail Sales figures, keep bets for two rate cuts this year on the table. 
• According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the markets are currently pricing in over a 60% chance that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates at the September meeting. 
• The US central bank is anticipated to lower borrowing costs further in December, which acts as a headwind for the US Treasury bond yields and lends support to the XAU/USD. 
• The security pact between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang raises the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions. 
• Furthermore, French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call snap elections sparked concerns about wider political uncertainty and should limit losses for the safe-haven metal. 
• Traders will continue to take cues from comments by FOMC members ahead of this week’s release of the final US GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. 

Technical Analysis: Gold price bears need to wait for break below ascending trend-line support

From a technical perspective, Friday’s decline could be categorized as a failed breakout through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance. The subsequent downfall, however, stalls ahead of a two-week-old ascending trend-line support, currently pegged near the $2,312 region, which should now act as a key pivotal point. Given that oscillators on the daily chart have just started drifting in negative territory, a convincing break below the said support will make the Gold price vulnerable to weaken below the $2,300 mark and retest the monthly swing low around the $2,285 horizontal zone. Some follow-through selling will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and expose the 100-day SMA support near the $2,247-2,246 area. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $2,225-2,220 support before the commodity eventually drops to the $2,200 round-figure mark.

On the flip side, the 50-day SMA, currently pegged near the $2,341-2,342 region, is likely to act as an immediate strong hurdle ahead of Friday’s swing high, around the $2,368-2,369 zone. Some follow-through buying has the potential to lift the Gold price towards the $2,387-2,388 intermediate hurdle en route to the $2,400 round-figure mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter will negate any near-term negative outlook and allow the XAU/USD to aim back to retest the all-time peak, around the $2,450 area touched in May.