High profits to become leverage for S&P500– Societe Generale

Analysts at Societe Generale expect profits – the glue that holds the S&P 500 Index together – to reach new highs in 2H24.

S&P500 is at a critical juncture

“After a +15% rally in the index year to date, we expect the S&P 500 to stay in buy-the-dip mode, with the next upleg coming closer to a Fed rate-cutting cycle, which we see starting in early 2025e. Our S&P 500 target level is unchanged at 5,500 for year-end 2024.”

“The outperformance of mega caps vs the average S&P 500 stock is now at a critical juncture. Narrow breadth typically occurs in a bear market or when a few concentrated stocks have the potential to take us into a ‘bubble’ – neither of which is our base case. We see cyclical opportunities outside Tech too.”

“The AI ‘boom’ becomes a TMT-like bubble, driving the S&P 500 to 6,666 or 24.7x $270 (the March 2000 peak valuation x our 2025 S&P 500 EPS estimate). Oil prices head towards $60bbl on the back of significant OPEC spare capacity. These two provide some upside risks.”