EUR/USD steadies around 1.0700 after expected decline in US core PCE Inflation
- EUR/USD edges higher near 1.0700 ahead of US core PCE Inflation data for May.
- The US Dollar drops on firm Fed rate-cut prospects.
- The near-term outlook of the Euro is uncertain ahead of French elections and the Eurozone preliminary HICP.
EUR/USD rises to 1.0720 in Friday’s American session after the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE) data showed that price pressures declined expectedly in May. On a monthly and an annual basis, the US core PCE report grew at a slower pace of 0.1% and 2.6%, respectively. The expected decline in the underlying inflation data will positively influence market speculation on the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates from the September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, which also shows that there will be two rate cuts this year. Contrary to market expectations, Fed officials see only one rate cut this year as signaled in the latest dot plot.
On Thursday, Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said rate cuts would become appropriate when they are convinced that inflation is on a clear path towards 2%. When asked about a concrete timeframe for rate cuts, Bostic said “I continue to believe conditions will likely call for a cut in the federal funds rate in the fourth quarter of this year,” Reuters reported.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, falls to 105.80. 10-year US Treasury yields decline to 4.27%. Going forward, the major trigger for the US Dollar (USD) will be the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for June, which will be published on Monday. The data will indicate the current health of the manufacturing sector.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD remains on its toes ahead of key Eurozone events
- EUR/USD holds ground near 1.0700 as the US Dollar corrects. The Euro’s outlook appears to be uncertain ahead of the French elections outcome and the Eurozone preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for June, which will be published on Tuesday.
- Investors worry that new government formation in France could boost spending plans, which could result in a deepening budget crisis. The uncertainty over French elections deepened after French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election when his party suffered defeat in the European elections to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN). However, the victory of the National Rally is not inevitable due to the formation of the French left, also known as the Popular Front.
- Investors will pay close attention to the Eurozone preliminary HICP data, which will provide clues about the European Central Bank’s (ECB) subsequent rate cuts. The ECB began its rate-cut cycle from early June’s policy meeting, during which it reduced its key rates by 25 basis points (bps).
- Meanwhile, the broader decline in price pressures in major Eurozone nations has boosted expectations of more rate cuts by the ECB. In France, the preliminary annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined expectedly to 2.5% from the prior release of 2.6%. Annual HICP in Spain decelerated to 3.5% from the former reading of 3.8% but remained higher than expectations of 3.4%, while price pressures in Italy were mixed.
Euro Price Today:
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| EUR | USD | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR | -0.01% | 0.02% | -0.21% | -0.01% | -0.38% | -0.20% | 0.08% | |
| USD | 0.01% | 0.03% | -0.19% | 0.00% | -0.35% | -0.19% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.22% | -0.04% | -0.40% | -0.23% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.21% | 0.19% | 0.22% | 0.18% | -0.17% | -0.01% | 0.28% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | -0.01% | 0.04% | -0.18% | -0.37% | -0.20% | 0.06% | |
| AUD | 0.38% | 0.35% | 0.40% | 0.17% | 0.37% | 0.18% | 0.44% | |
| NZD | 0.20% | 0.19% | 0.23% | 0.01% | 0.20% | -0.18% | 0.26% | |
| CHF | -0.08% | -0.09% | -0.03% | -0.28% | -0.06% | -0.44% | -0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD aims for a firm footing above1.0700
EUR/USD trades inside Thursday’s trading range as investors await the US core PCE inflation reading to make decisive positions. The downward-sloping border of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern formation on a daily time frame continues to remain a major barrier for the Euro bulls. A fresh downside would appear if the asset delivers a decisive breakdown of the above-mentioned chart pattern.
The shared currency pair establishes below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0780, suggesting that the overall trend is bearish.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 40.00. A bearish momentum would trigger if the oscillator slips below the same.
Economic Indicator
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Next release: Tue Jul 02, 2024 09:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 2.5%
Previous: 2.6%
Source: Eurostat