US Dollar continues its decline after Wednesday’s data
- US Dollar is under further scrutiny following dismal ADP and ISM Services PMI data
- Markets firming up their view of a September Fed rate cut.
- Investors are turning their attention towards the forthcoming Nonfarm Payrolls data from June on Friday.
The US Dollar, represented by the DXY Index, has continued to show weakness as traders assess a series of Wednesday data releases. US traders will remain on the sidelines, celebrating Independence day.
Concerns raised by signs of disinflation and a slowing labor market in the US are being taken into account by market participants, with a September rate cut now seeming more likely. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are maintaining a conservative stance, however, starting to show concerns about the labor market struggles.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar softens further amidst poor data, markets prepare for Nonfarm Payrolls
- With US traders off to celebrate Independence Day, the market is left to digest Wednesday’s data releases.
- Private sector employment reported by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) came in lower than expected, with an increase of 150K jobs in June versus a forecast of 160K.
- Additionally, the weekly Jobless Claims came in at 238K, which was above the expected figure of 235 K.
- The US service sector displayed contraction in June signified by the ISM Services PMI, which hugely missed market expectations of 52.5 by declining to a record low of 48.8 from 53.8 in May.
- Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 11-12 meeting indicated that officials do acknowledge a slowing US Economy and easing price pressures, yet they refrained from any commitment to rate cuts, preferring a cautious data-dependant approach.
- Investors are now shifting their attention to Friday’s significantly important June Nonfarm Payrolls report. The Bloomberg consensus predicts 190K jobs, dropping from 272K in May, with ‘whisper numbers’ forecasting 198K.
DXY Technical Outlook: DXY experiences further headwinds and loses 20-day SMA
The DXY technical outlook turned negative after the index fell below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). With both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) now in negative territory, the market is looking at the potential for further decline towards the 105.00 and 104.50 supports if data continues to disappoint.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.