Fed’s Daly: One or two rate cuts this year would be more or less the appropriate path

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly acknowledged improving inflation figures on Thursday but warned that shelter inflation and labor remain sticking points, and that expectations of three rate cuts may be an overreaction.

Key highlights

The economy looks to be on a path where one or two rate cuts this year would be more or less the appropriate path.

My expectation is that inflation will come down gradually, the labor market is gradually slowing.

Recent inflation prints are a relief, but progress is bumpy.

It is likely some policy adjustments will be warranted.

The labor market has softened but is still solid.

We are at the point where additional labor market slowing is more likely to result in a rise in unemployment.

The decline in super-core ex-housing inflation is welcome.

Shelter prices are coming down, but the lack of supply means the process is slower than it has been in history.

It’s a fairly big signal from the Fed that so many of us are talking about the labor market.