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USD/CAD remains sideways above 1.3600 even though US PPI rise strongly

  • USD/CAD remains in a tight range above 1.3600 despite US PPI turning out hotter than expected.
  • Market speculation for Fed rate cuts in September remains firm.
  • The weak Canadian job market boosts prospects of more rate cuts by the BoC.

The USD/CAD pair doesn’t move much from its current range above 1.3600 in Friday’s American session even though the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported that the producer inflation rose at a faster-than-expected pace in June.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed that the core factory-gate inflation grew at a robust pace of 3.0% than the estimates of 2.5% and the prior release of 2.6%, upwardly revised from 2.3%. Also, the underlying inflation rose strongly by 0.4% from the consensus of 0.2% and the former reading of 0.3%, upwardly revised from its unchanged position.

Hotter-than-expected producer inflation has raised doubts over strong market speculation for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin reducing interest rates from the September meeting, which were prompted by softer-than-projected consumer inflation and easing labor market strength.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, has declined further to near 104.00. The opening of the S&P 500 on a positive note indicates a higher risk appetite of market participants. 10-year US Treasury yields surrender their intraday gains and fall back to near 4.20%.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar remains on the backfoot amid expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut interest rates again. Market speculation for back-to-back rate cuts by the BoC rose due to weak Canadian labor market conditions. The BoC started reducing its key borrowing rate from the June meeting after maintaining a restrictive interest rate framework for more than two years.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.