EUR/USD: A break above 1.0905 may lead to 1.0915 – UOB Group

The Euro (EUR) is expected to trade in a range in the short run, likely between 1.0855 and 1.0905. In the longer run, EUR is expected to continue to rise, but it might take a while before 1.0915 comes into view, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

To likely trade between 1.0855 and 1.0905

24-HOUR VIEW: “Last Friday, we expected EUR to trade in a range between 1.0845 and 1.0900. Our expectations were incorrect. Instead of trading in a range, EUR rose to a high of 1.0911. While EUR closed at 1.0906 (+0.38%), it opened lower in early Sydney trade today. The strong rise over late last week appears to be overstretched, and we continue to expect EUR to trade in a range, likely between 1.0855 and 1.0905.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We highlighted last Friday (12 Jul, spot at 1.0865) that EUR ‘is expected to continue to rise.’ We also highlighted that ‘severely overbought conditions suggest it might take a couple of days before 1.0915 comes into view.’ EUR subsequently rose to a high of 1.0911. While upward momentum has slowed somewhat, there is still a chance for EUR to rise to 1.0915. Only a breach of 1.0835 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.0825) would suggest that the EUR strength from more than a week ago has ended.”