USD/MXN extends decline toward 18.50 ahead of US data
- USD/MXN continues to lose ground due to the dovish mood surrounding the Fed.
- The downside of the US Dollar is retrained due to improved Treasury yields.
- The Mexican Peso may struggle as traders expect Banxico to adopt a dovish stance regarding its policy outlook.
USD/MXN extends its losses from the previous session, trading around 18.80 during Thursday’s European hours. This decline of the USD/MXN could be attributed to the increasing expectations of at least a 25 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.
The US Dollar (USD) remains tepid ahead of the release of US Initial Jobless Claims and Retail Sales data scheduled for Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against other six major peers, received support from the improved Treasury yields. The DXY trades around 102.60 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 3.95% and 3.82%, respectively, at the time of writing.
The moderate increase in the annual US Consumer Price Index (CPI) has sparked debate about the extent of the Fed’s potential rate cut in September. Traders are favoring a more modest 25 basis point reduction, with a 60% probability, while a 50 basis point cut is still on the table. According to CME FedWatch, there is a 36% chance of the larger cut occurring in September.
In Mexico, last week’s data showed that the INEGI Consumer Confidence index fell to 46.9 in July, down from 47.5 in June, which has contributed to a dovish outlook from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). Additionally, Banxico Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja endorsed the recent interest rate cut to 10.75%. Although headline inflation is at 5.57%, she defended the rate reduction by highlighting the decline in core prices over the past 18 months.
Traders are expected to closely monitor the Retail Sales data for June, which will be released on Tuesday. Later in the week, attention will turn to the first-half-month Inflation data and the Banxico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, both scheduled for release on Thursday.
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.