DXY: JOLTS, Beige Book in focus – OCBC

The US Dollar (USD) short squeeze was well underway, with AUD, NZD and THB under pressure overnight, OCBC FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Some risks of further short squeeze exist

“ISM manufacturing slumped (47.2 vs. 47.5 expected), alongside new orders while employment subindex remains in contractionary territory. Focus shifts to JOLTS job openings and Fed’s Beige book report. July’s Beige Book showed most Districts reported employment was flat or up slightly, while a few Districts reported modest employment growth.”

“We reiterate that USD should remain sensitive to job data this week given that Fed’s focus has shifted towards supporting labour market. Good and bad data may continue to point to USD rebound while data in line with estimate may see a more muted response to USD. DXY was last at 101.61.”

“Daily momentum is mild bullish but rise in RSI moderated. We still see some risks of further short squeeze. Resistance at 101.90 (21 DMA), 102.20 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low). Support at 100.50 levels. Week remaining brings JOLTs job openings (Wed), ADP employment, ISM services employment (Thursday), and US payrolls report on Friday.