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US Dollar gives up ground after Consumer Confidence data, Fed dovish bets

  • DXY gave up some ground and fell to 100.60.
  • Conference Board consumer confidence data for September missed expectations.
  • Fed speakers are battling the current market’s dovish expectations.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, posted some losses on Tuesday after the release of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence data. In the meantime, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials seem to be trying to push back on the market’s aggressive dovish bets.

The US economy exhibits mixed signals with indications of both a slowdown and ongoing resilience. Economic activity appears to be moderating, but some sectors remain strong. The Fed has indicated that the trajectory of its monetary policy will be guided by the evolving economic data, suggesting that the pace of rate adjustments will depend on the incoming information.

Daily digest market movers: US Dollar declines after CB Consumer Confidence surprise, Fed speakers

  • US Consumer Confidence unexpectedly plunged in September, falling below expectations to 98.7.
  • Market anticipates excessive Fed easing, pricing in 75 bps of cuts by year-end and 175-200 bps over the next year.
  • Some Fed officials, including Neel Kashkari from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and Michelle Bowman, are pushing back against dovish market expectations.
  • Bowman dissented from the recent 50 bps rate cut, preferring a 25 bps reduction and warning that a larger cut might hinder the inflation fight.
  • She highlighted ongoing inflation risks, including supply chain disruptions and fiscal policy, and remains cautious about the strength of the labor market.
  • Other Fed officials, like Raphael Bostic from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Austan Goolsbee from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, express concerns about the labor market and support faster rate cuts.
  • Markets continue to bet strongly on 75 bps of easing this year.
  • On the positive side for the USD, divergence in global growth favors the US Dollar, with the eurozone, Australia and China showing signs of weakness.
  • US 10-year benchmark rate retreated from September highs, currently trading at 3.75%.

DXY technical outlook: DXY holds bearish momentum, bulls struggle

Technical analysis for the DXY index reveals a bearish trend, supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 40 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) printing decreasing green bars. With the index below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), the technical outlook remains clearly bearish. A break above the 20-day SMA would improve the outlook somewhat

Support levels exist at 100.50, 100.30 and 100.00, while resistance levels are at 101.00, 101.30 and 101.60.

US Dollar FAQs

The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.

The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.