Goldman Sachs highlights the case for an undershoot in US inflation | Forexlive

Goldman Sachs is out with a note today highlighting downside inflation pressures from oil. I’ve been writing about this for awhile, noting that oil is trading more than $20 below where it was at this time last year, adding a powerful drag for crude.

Looking out further, Goldman Sachs sees continued low prints and heading below 2%.

Using the oil futures curve, “we would .. expect headline CPI inflation of 1.8% year-over-year next April, roughly in line with what’s currently priced into inflation swaps,” they write.

There is some counter-seasonality late this year to run against crude but in early 2025, it all begins to align and that should keep the Fed dovish.