No need to sell this AI data center play ahead of earnings — and updates on 3 more industrial stocks
Deutsche Bank is striking a cautious tone on Dover ‘s stock ahead of the industrial conglomerate’s upcoming earnings report. Jim Cramer is saying don’t fall for it. The firm’s wariness on Dover lands not long after the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle – generally seen as a positive development for economically sensitive corners of the market such as industrials. That’s because lower rates are typically good for businesses’ capital expenditure levels. And yet a recent pair of research reports on industrials – from Deutsche Bank and Barclays – paints a decidedly mixed view on Dover and the group overall, which includes fellow Club holdings Eaton and Stanley Black & Decker . The divide is readily apparent on Dover, which is one of our plays on data center buildouts to support the growth of artificial intelligence computing. Late Tuesday, Deutsche Bank listed Dover as a short-term sell idea, suggesting the company will report underwhelming results that may pressure shares later this month. Jim, on the other hand, rushed to Dover’s defense Wednesday. “I really, really don’t want to sell this stock,” he said during Wednesday’s Morning Meeting. “I think it’ll go much higher.” Analysts at Deutsche Bank listed a few reasons to support their short-term sell call on Dover, including the need to restate its earnings and guidance to account for the sale of its Environmental Solutions Group. While analysts estimates’ will need to be revised lower accordingly, this should not surprise the market because the sale was announced way back in July . Plus, Dover was right to divest this unit, which makes garbage trucks and trash compactors, in the first place because it’s a noncore business and the sale proceeds can be redeployed into more attractive opportunities. Analysts also argued that Dover may struggle to meet management’s upbeat outlook call book-to-bill performance. On its July earnings call , CEO Richard Tobin said he expects Dover’s book-to-bill ratio to be above 1 in the second half of 2024, a key threshold indicating more orders are being placed than filled. But analysts now see “downside risk” to Tobin’s assessment. Dover remains “one of the best-managed companies and they are not going to slip up on their execution here,” Jim argued in response. The Club remains long Dover because its thermal connectors used in data centers should continue to see growing demand, while its biopharma business also is in recovery mode. For its part, Barclays on Wednesday issued a middle-of-the-road view on Dover. The firm bumped its price target on the stock to $190 a share from $186, arguing there’s been a “positive tone” from the company regarding the organic sales growth and EPS outlook into 2025. Still, Barclays’ new target is on par with the stock’s price Wednesday, and it maintained a hold-equivalent rating. DOV YTD mountain Dover (DOV) year-to-date performance It’s not just Dover in the spotlight. Other industrial stocks in our portfolio received price target increases this week, including Eaton, Stanley Black & Decker and Honeywell . Barclays raised its price target on Eaton to $327 a share from $319 — right around where shares of the electrical equipment maker traded Wednesday. The analysts, who maintained their hold-equivalent rating, said investor expectations are “appropriately optimistic” for Eaton, which like Dover is benefiting from the data center buildout. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank lifted its PT on Eaton to $376 from $367, arguing the company should raise its full-year guidance when it reports quarterly results in a few weeks. Deutsche Bank has a buy rating on the stock. We have a 1 rating. Barclays and Deutsche Bank found harmony on Stanley Black & Decker. Both firms raised their price target on the DeWalt owner’s stock to $100 a share from $96 while maintaining hold or hold-equivalent ratings. That is still below where Stanley Black & Decker shares traded Wednesday, at roughly $109 apiece. The stock has been red hot in recent weeks as the Fed’s first rate cut approached then became reality. If the Fed continues delivering interest rate cuts, the toolmaker’s sales could see a boost as lower borrowing costs typically spur activity in the housing market. Stanley Black & Decker remains one of the portfolio’s favorite interest rate plays, though we maintain a 2 rating on the stock. That means we’d wait for a pullback before adding to our position. Honeywell’s price target was increased only slightly at Deutsche Bank — up merely $1 to $226 a share — and left unchanged at Barclays. Deutsche Bank has a hold on the stock. Barclays has a buy-equivalent overweight. We have a 2 rating on shares, which traded a little above $204 each Wednesday. Potential upside could come from CEO Vimal Kapur taking a more aggressive approach to reshuffling Honeywell’s portfolio to focus on faster-growing and higher-margin areas. Jim has been recommending this for awhile, though, and even recently threatened to exit if there’s not real action taken by management soon . The conglomerate has reported modest revenue growth in recent quarters. “This [stock] is crying out ‘sell me,’ and I don’t like that but we have owned it for a long time and we know that there is huge value here,” he said during the September Monthly Meeting . “Call me an unhappy holder waiting for better news. We better get some concrete evidence of a plan.” (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long ETN, HON, DOV, SWK. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
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Deutsche Bank is striking a cautious tone on Dover‘s stock ahead of the industrial conglomerate’s upcoming earnings report. Jim Cramer is saying don’t fall for it.