Goldman Sachs preview US nonfarm payroll data Friday, October 4: +165K /jobless rate 4.2% | Forexlive

Goldman Sachs are estimating that headline nonfarm payrolls rose 165k in September.

From the note, in brief:

On net, Big Data indicators indicate a pace of job creation above the recent payrolls trend.

We assume above-trend (albeit moderating) contributions from the recent surge in immigration and catch-up hiring.

We suspect August payroll growth will be revised higher, as has been typical over the last decade, though revisions so far this year have been disproportionately downward.

We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.2%, reflecting a flat labor force participation rate and firmer household employment growth.

We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), which would lower the year-over-year rate by 0.1pp to 3.7%, reflecting waning wage pressures and modestly negative calendar effects.

***

Data due at 0830 US Eastern time: