OPEC trims 2024 oil demand growth forecast to 1.93 million bpd

OPEC on Monday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 reflecting data received so far this year and also lowered its projection for next year, marking the producer group’s third consecutive downward revision.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in a monthly report said world oil demand will rise by 1.93 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from growth of 2.03 million bpd it expected last month.

There is a wide split between forecasters on the strength of demand growth in 2024, partly due to differences over demand from China and over the pace of the world’s switch to cleaner fuels. OPEC is still at the top end of industry estimates after the revision.

China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade as OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 580,000 bpd from 650,000 bpd. While government stimulus measures will support fourth-quarter demand, oil use is facing headwinds from economic challenges and moves towards cleaner fuels, OPEC said.

“Diesel consumption continued to be subdued by slowing economic activity, mostly a slowdown in building and housing construction, and the substitution of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for petroleum diesel fuel in heavy-duty trucks,” OPEC said in reference to August.

OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.64 million bpd from 1.74 million bpd. (Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Bernadette Baum)