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GBP/USD tests 1.3000, faces headwinds due to dovish sentiment surrounding the BoE

  • GBP/USD may face challenges as the BoE is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut in November.
  • BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden may participate in a panel discussion on financial regulation in Washington on Wednesday.
  • Fed’s Daly stated that the economy is evidently in a stronger position, with a significant decline in inflation.

The GBP/USD pair edges higher toward 1.3000 during Asian trading on Wednesday. However, the Pound Sterling (GBP) faced headwinds due to declining consumer and producer inflation figures, coupled with weak labor market data in the United Kingdom (UK). These factors are fueling expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may implement a 25 basis point rate cut in November, followed by another quarter-point cut in December.

On Tuesday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted the need for the UK central bank to enhance its ability to monitor developments in the less transparent non-banking system. Speaking at a Bloomberg event in New York, Bailey noted, “We are approaching a point where we need to pivot from rule-making to surveillance” to better track financial activities outside the traditional banking sector.

Furthermore, BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden is scheduled to participate in a panel discussion on financial regulation, organized by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) in Washington on Wednesday.

The US Dollar (USD) gains ground as Treasury yields rise due to the increasing likelihood of nominal rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trading near a two-month high at 104.20. Meanwhile, yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds are at 4.05% and 4.23%, respectively.

In a post on the social media platform X, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly stated that the economy is clearly in a better position, with inflation having fallen significantly and the labor market returning to a more sustainable path.

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.