Platinum: Tired of the election? – TDS

Platinum markets may just be offering the only sandbox in which your bread-and-butter playbook could be expressed, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

The set-up is now extremely skewed to the downside

“Speculative flows in Platinum have remained largely uncorrelated to the remainder of the complex for some time, mitigating the risk of a catch-up trade in the white metal despite plausible arguments surrounding the election’s impact on demand outcomes.”

“Meanwhile, the set-up for CTA positioning has now reached extreme levels, with imminent and large-scale selling activity expected in any reasonable scenario for prices over the coming week. Macro funds have remained largely flat in Platinum for some time. If you don’t believe Platinum trading will be distorted by this election season, the set-up is now extremely skewed to the downside.”

“Even a big uptape won’t be enough to keep CTAs from shedding nearly -25% of their max size by this time next week, whereas a downtape could lead to massive selling activity in the imminent term.”