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NZD/USD softens below 0.6000 amid expectation of slower pace of Fed rate cuts

  • NZD/USD weakens to near 0.5970 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
  • Expectation of slower pace of Fed rate reductions boosts the US Dollar. 
  • Fresh stimulus policies from China might help limit the NZD’s losses. 

The NZD/USD pair trades with mild losses around 0.5970 on Monday during the Asian trading hours. The firmer Greenback amid stronger US economic data and the less dovish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) undermine the pair. 
 
Meanwhile, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, currently trades near a three-month top of 104.50. US rate futures have priced in a 97.7% possibility that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) in November, according to the CME FedWatch tool. 

Data released by the US Census Bureau on Friday showed that Durable Goods Orders in the US declined by 0.8% in September, beating the estimation of a 1.0% decrease. Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation increased 0.4% in September. Finally, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 70.5 in October, the highest in six months, better than the previous reading and the consensus.  

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered its Official Cash Rate (OCR) in August and cut another OCR in October. The RBNZ is expected to deliver another 50 basis points (bps) reductions at its final monetary policy of the year on November 27, with markets pricing some risk of a 75-point move. This, in turn, weighs on the Kiwi against the USD. 

Traders will keep an eye on the additional fresh stimulus measures from Chinese officials to boost the economy. On Monday, China’s Vice Minister of Finance Liao Min stated that China will step up countercyclical adjustments of its macro policies to bolster economic recovery in the fourth quarter, which will lay a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% this year. Any positive developments from fresh plans could lift the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand. 

New Zealand Dollar FAQs

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.