Sovereign debt is the biggest risk to global growth in 2025, Saudi finance minister says

RIYADH — National debt is a major threat to markets in the near future, Saudi Arabia’s finance minister said, expressing particular concern over lower income countries as well as what he described as rapidly growing global fragmentation.

“I think globally, the serious, serious issue that we need to watch is sovereign debt issues, particularly in low-income countries and emerging economies that do not have the fiscal buffers to lean into in case of disruptions in the market,” Mohammed Al-Jadaan told CNBC’s Dan Murphy Wednesday from the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh.

“And hopefully between the IMF and the G20 we will find a solution, and we will be ready to support the world economy in case of shocks in that area, but it is an area that we need to watch, as global leaders, to make sure that it doesn’t surprise us.”

Al-Jadaan earlier in the conversation noted the importance of reaching a soft landing for economies as central banks attempt to manage inflation.

“We came from Washington two days ago, after a week full of meetings at IMF and the World Bank and the G20, and I think a there is a clear recognition that the world is actually proving to be resilient,” he said. “And a lot of discussion around steering the soft landing, which is very important. The key challenge is actually sovereign debt, and a lot of discussion throughout last week is to make sure that the three institutions work together to try and find a solution to the sovereign debt, particularly in low-income countries.”

Global public debt hit a record $97 trillion in 2023, prompting the United Nations to call for urgent reforms for governments and financial systems around the world.

Particularly in Africa, the UN wrote in a June report this year, “faltering economies in the wake of multiple global crises have resulted in a heavier debt burden.” The number of African countries with debt-to-GDP rations surpassing 60% has more than quadrupled from 6 to 27 between 2013 and 2023, the report said.

Paying back debt has also become more expensive, hitting emerging market and developing countries more intensely.

“I think the painful fact is that low-income countries, a lot of them, are now having today their debt service that is actually more [costly] than their health care, education and climate action combined,” Al-Jadaan said Wednesday.

“That is not good for the world, and we need to make sure that we find a solution to that. Hopefully we will, and we are working collectively global to reach that solution.”