Stock market based model shows a nearly 70% chance of who will win the US election | Forexlive

Its not my model. I’m posting it for info. If you don’t like the post, feel free to … chill out a bit.

This is from Mark Hulbert at Market Watch:

This stock-market prediction model is not complicated. It exploits the historical tendency for the incumbent political party’s chance of electoral victory to reflect the Dow’s year-to-date performance. The model’s track record is statistically highly significant – at the 99% level.

• The incumbent political party is favored when the Dow is up year-to-date, according to a prediction model with a 99% confidence rating
• incumbent means Harris
• model gives her a 69% chance of winning

Here is the link for a little more.