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US Dollar starts the week on the defensive, markets await inflation data

  • DXY trades with mild losses on Monday, hovering near the 105.85 level.
  • Markets await November CPI data, which is expected to show slightly accelerating inflation.
  • Fed’s December rate cut is widely anticipated but seen as hawkish.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) began Monday’s session with mild losses, maintaining its position near the 105.80 level. Market participants are turning their attention to November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due Wednesday, which is expected to show annual headline inflation accelerating to 2.7% from 2.6%. 

Despite expectations of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), markets remain focused on the central bank’s cautious stance amid sticky inflation concerns.

Daily digest market movers: DXY steadies ahead of CPI and Fed decision

  • DXY trades near 106.00 as markets prepare for key data releases this week.November Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to rise by 2.7% annually, up from 2.6% in October, while core CPI is expected to remain steady at 3.3%.
  • The Fed’s media blackout leaves no new commentary, but markets price in an 85% chance of a December rate cut.
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model projects Q4 growth at 3.3% SAAR, while the New York Fed’s Nowcast shows 1.9% for Q4 and 2.4% for Q1.
  • Last week’s jobs data showed strong results with November’s Nonfarm Payrolls at 227K, well above expectations of 200K.Consumer Sentiment for December rose to 74, while inflation expectations eased slightly with the 5-year outlook falling to 3.1%.

DXY technical outlook: Bulls cautiously hold 106.00 level amid mixed signals

The DXY continues to hover near 106.00, showing mild strength despite ongoing concerns about sticky inflation and a dovish-leaning Fed. Key technical indicators remain mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is declining, approaching its neutral 50 level, suggesting waning bullish momentum. 

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows red histogram bars, signaling bearish pressure as short-term moving averages lag behind longer-term ones.

Immediate resistance is seen at 106.50, with further hurdles near 107.00. On the downside, support is firm between 105.50 and 106.00. Wednesday’s CPI data will likely be the key driver for the index’s next significant move, with a surprise potentially triggering volatility across the board.

Fed FAQs

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.